Financial Model Scaling Analysis
Visualizing the extreme divergence in Revenue vs OPEX and explosive Retailer growth
Year 1 ROCE vs Year 2 ROCE
-7.78% → 61.56%
Huge Unrealistic Jump
Y2 Revenue vs Y1 Revenue
$1.23B → 9.6x
+858% Growth
Y2 OPEX vs Y1 OPEX
$34.5M → 2.3x
Costs fail to scale
Monthly Revenue vs. Operating Expenses (OPEX) Divergence
Compounding Active Retailer Growth (No Churn)
Key Findings: Why ROCE Jumps Unrealistically
The financial model shows a mathematically accurate but operationally impossible scaling curve. Two main flaws drive the massive ROCE jump:
- Infinite Compounding Growth: Active Retailers grow continuously every month without any churn rate. The model expects one route to handle over 780 active retailers, generating immense unconstrained revenue.
- Hardcoded Unscalable Costs: While revenue 10x's in Year 2, key Operating Expenses (like Delivery Drivers and Warehouse Handlers) are hardcoded using flat numbers rather than scaling proportionally with the volume of routes or retailers. This creates an extreme artificial "operating leverage", rocketing ROCE from -7.78% to 61.56%.